Predicting how the world will change as it warms is filled with uncertainty. For example, tropical rainforests could either become hotter and drier or hotter and wetter—it all depends on which climate model you consult. Despite the uncertainties, decision makers must plan ahead and prepare for potential changes in rainfall and temperature. A new CIFOR publication, Climate scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them, can help policy makers and non-climate specialists understand how climatic scenarios are constructed. The authors hope the information will help governments design policies that take into account a range of potential climatic changes. The biggest challenge for policy makers is planning for an uncertain future, says CIFOR scientist Heru Santoso, one of the authors. ‘We have written a report which explains in straightforward terms the questions people outside the scientific community most commonly ask,’ Santoso says. ‘Given that there are so many factors to consider, we can offer no single and definitive answer about how the world will change. This can be incredibly daunting for people charged with the responsibility of designing policies. It can even deter them from taking the initiative in order to prepare for the future.’ According to the report, scientists are usually the first to admit that predicting future climatic patterns is difficult. This is partly because greenhouse-gas emissions, which cause global warming, are influenced by a range of factors—changes in population growth, fossil fuel usage, clean technology research and national and international climate-change polices. Santoso says scenarios for tropical rainforests in Asia are particularly problematic. ‘In this region, tropical storms and cloud formation are difficult to model,’ he says. ‘In many of the island nations, such as Indonesia, scenarios are further complicated by changes in sea temperature which also affect the climate.’ CIFOR’s lead scientist on climate change adaptation, Bruno Locatelli, says we can see more clearly what the future may hold in some other regions. For example, there is a growing consensus that the Amazon rainforest is likely to be much drier. Locatelli says the publication will help people understand the key to developing appropriate adaptation plans is flexibility. He says information derived from a range of models should guide the design of robust policies that work under different sets of climatic conditions. ‘We want people who are developing adaptation plans, both at national and local levels, to understand the basics of climate modeling when they need it. We also recognise climate scenarios are not always needed for planning adaptation. Addressing the current vulnerability of people is a good start that will facilitate the adaptation to the future climate,’ says Locatelli. Heru Santoso says that comprehensive adaptation plans are definitely a challenge; climatic scenarios can also be useful when developing more specific infrastructure projects and in managing resource allocation. For instance, planning for hydroelectric dams or long-rotation tree plantations needs to take into account how the environment may change. The profitability and efficiency of these projects may be affected by climate changes. Santoso also warns that designing adaption policies should not be seen as a task for the future. ‘Governments need to start acting now,’ Santoso says. ‘Much can be done at this very moment to reduce people’s vulnerability. We are already witnessing more floods and more forest fires throughout the world and we need to help protect people exposed to environmental disasters.’ = = = = CIFOR Working Paper No. 45
Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them
Authors: Heru Santoso, Monica Idinoba and Pablo Imbach
December 2008, CIFOR
Available at: http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/Publications/Detail?pid=2766
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